System Ripple Effects

By Ethan Nash, CEO

One thing I've observed is that the best organizational problem solvers are excellent at considering 2nd- and 3rd-order consequences (a fancy term for looking beyond the immediate outcome of a decision or action).

A systems principle to remember: You cannot change one part of a system without influencing the rest of the system.

First-order consequences are the immediate, direct results. For example, aligning a team around common behavioral commitments may create greater clarity.

Second-order consequences are the ripple effects that follow. For example, the new clarity may increase accountability for behaviors, which could require more effort and attention from the manager.

Third-order consequences are what happen as a result of those second-order effects. For example, some employees (even high performers) may leave because they are unwilling to change their behavior. Or the manager may fall behind in other areas because of the additional time spent on accountability conversations and reinforcing expectations.

A systems-thinker might ask…

Who or what will be affected?

What new behaviors might emerge?

What unintended consequences could occur from that (good or bad)?

What might happen 3-6 months after that?

And, finally, are these the results worth it? Can we live with these outcomes?